Nigerians should expect a runoff to decide its next president, according to SBM Intelligence, a geopolitical research consultancy firm.
This was in its latest report on a poll commissioned by EiE Nigeria, to forecast the outcome of next Saturdays presidential election.
The February 25 presidential election is anticipated to be the most keenly contested, with three or four major candidates vying to occupy the seat of power in Africas most populous nation. Atiku Abubakar, of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Bola Ahmed Tinubu, of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peter Obi, of the Labour Party (LP), and Rabiu Kwankwaso, of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), are seen as candidates with a nationwide appeal to win the next Saturday election.
According to SBM, Nigerians will need a second round to decide their next president definitively.
Earlier, using a larger sample size of 11,000 respondents cut across the six geo-political zones of the federation, it was concluded that Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar had a more national appeal, with Bola Tinubu gaining a higher level of support from the North-West and South-West geo-political zones. Rabiu Kwankwaso would pose a greater threat to Tinubu and Abubakars dominance in Kano and Katsina, but in fewer States in the North-Central and North East regions.
The data suggest that Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar could garner enough votes over a sufficient number of states across four of the countrys six geo-political zones to meet the constitutional requirement of scoring 25 percent in at least 24 States.
This outcome, however, is complicated by the fact that Bola Tinubu is likely to do well in two of the countrys biggest voting StatesKano and Lagosand the heavily populated South-West and North-West States, thereby winning the popular vote but not reaching 25 percent in 24 States, it said.
The higher probability of a run-off was supported by the feelings it picked up from, not only respondents who said they had recently picked up Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), but the mood in the country, which could perhaps swing votes to either of the four front runners.
SBM, in collaboration with the ‘Enough is Enough’ organisation, observed that voter mobilisation exercises had spurred many first-time voters to act.
